US elections: the Alkemy Lab’s data-driven analysis continues

New points of view on the elections in the United States are emerging from the data intelligence research conducted by Alkemy Lab within the DEEP project

Alkemy Lab continues the data intelligence research on social conversations about the US elections, keeping to observe and the analyze the information flows by using platforms and techniques produced by its research.

The analysis focused on the presidential election and how candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have faced the elections on social networks, especially Twitter and Facebook. In addition, the research investigated as social people reacted and interacted with the candidates and their messages; it has found out which are the themes that have made people talk more and with what mood the election was discussed.

Compared with data-driven analysis of which we shown the first results in the article "La Data Intelligence sulle Elezioni USA di Alkemy Lab su La Stampa”, it has emerged new information.

Until the eve of the vote, the popularity of the candidates expressed by the spread of their hashtags remained balanced and no winner was declared. The use of hashtags, official or otherwise, related to the electoral campaigns of Clinton and Trump indicates as dominant in conversations #maga, #draintheswamp, #trumptrain, #americafirst and #tramppence.

To dominate conversations is the hashtag #maga (acronym for Make America Great Again), who seems to have benefited from a good communication campaign, even before of the electorate support. #imwithher, official hashtag in support of the Democratic candidate is central in the tweet of the candidates and related retweet and reply, but less than #maga.

A snapshot of the conversations of Saturday November 5, the day of the weekend that preceded the vote, shows with what sentiment were discussed the main issues of the campaign. Some arguments, represented by their hashtags, are present within tweets with positive and negative sentiment: this is the case of the official hashtags of the Trump campaign, #maga, and Clinton campaign, #imwithher, who divided the spirits and seem to have been used by both supporters and detractors, and from the respective candidates.

The most used hashtag in the tweet, with positive sentiment is #AmericaFirst, official hashtag of the Trump campaign that calls for putting America first. #voterfraud and # podestaemails31 hashtags are used only in a negative sense: the electoral fraud referred to by the hashtag is one that Trump and his supporters claimed to happen through the strong support given by the media to Clinton. The use of #podestaemails31 in tweets by the negative tone demonstrates the interest in the emailgate case, and it presaged its influence on the vote.

The continued rise of mention and retweet to the candidates’ tweets, accompanied the approach of the polling day with a small but steady advantage of Trump. No strong jolt on the progress of the candidates’ popularity, except for a decrease in the Clinton retweet on October 28 and 29. The social popularity of Hillary may have been affected by the letter of October 28, in which the FBI director James Comey announced the opening of new investigations on Clinton’s e-mail.

Research and graphics are realized within the DEEP project with the contribution of Catchy, DtoK Lab and ONB Analytics.