The municipal elections’ final lines are at the heart of the new analysis made by Alkemy Lab and Catchy
The ending chapter of the study about the 2016 municipal elections is the result of the collaboration between Catchy and Alkemy Lab whithin the DEEP project
The 2016 municipal elections animated the conversations, not only about politics, in the last months: the candidates’ campaigns, the surveys and the predictions on the voters’ preferencies, the first and the second ballots drawn the attention of the whole country.
The last chapter was about the fight among the candidates at the second ballot. To this chapter the article “Amministrative 2016, la lezione è anche social”, published on riotta.it, is devoted. The study, made by the newsroom of the information website, is based on the results of the analysis that Catchy and Alkemy Lab realized in collaboration with DtoK Lab and Kode within the DEEP project.
The municipal elections in Roma, Milano, Napoli and Torino are again at the heart of the studies made by Alkemy Lab, closing an analysis the results of which we have already shared. As the elections’ events were going, Alekemy Lab’s researches raised and the different interpretations of social conversations among candidates and voters developed. The same happened to the web searches, the ballots and the turnout at the polls.
In order to retrace the steps of the research, we can easily read the studies based on ours previous analysis. We can start with the social overview in Per chi vota il web? Le elezioni social di Roma, Milano, Torino e Napoli, then pass through Equilibrio a Milano, Meloni attivissima a Roma: ecco chi si è mosso di più sui social network, through Ad un passo dal ballottaggio: la nuova analisi di Alkemy Lab and Hashtag e campagne social, la battaglia sul web infiamma i candidati, ending with the last Amministrative 2016, la lezione è anche social.
In the light of the results of the municipal elections, Alkemy Lab’s team can now sum up the collected data, trying to answer the original question: do the social networks’ data effectively represent a good parameter in order to “predict” the exit polls?
If we consider the engagement obtained on Facebook and Twitter by the candidates in the last week before the second ballot, the answer seems to be “Yes”.
If Virginia Raggi’s victory seems expected, considering the advantage she obtained in the first ballot, the choice of the citizens of Torino was surprising. Chiara Appendino overturned the results of June 5, in which the Pd candidate obtained a good 41,8% agianst the 30,92% of the candidate from Movimento 5 stelle.
Since the first studies, Piero Fassino’s campaign appeared “cold”. The former mayor, in fact, didn’t succeed in obtaining an engagement similar to the one that the bocconian Appendino gained. As we can see in the infographic above, the two representatives of the Movimento 5 stelle overcame all the other candidates in terms of sharings and likes on Facebook.
The resuls of the elections in Milano was hard to predict from the social networs. The head to head between the two candidates in terms of engagement remained unchanged. The victory of Pd in Milano, even if it wasn’t overwhelming, opens a new question for the party: can only a Pd in the Beppe Sala’s style win in Italy in these times?
The curiosity to see two young women in chair in important cities helped the two candidates of the Movimento 5 stelle to win the elections. Through Google trend, it was possibile to compare the interest over time gained by the two former mayors Marino and Fassino - respectively of Roma and Torino - with the one gained by the two new mayors Raggi and Appendino. After the second ballot, the Google search for Virginia Raggi reared up sharply, followed by Chiara Appendino: they both complitely overcame the interest gained by the former mayors after the previous municipal elections.
Moreover, Alkemy Lab analyzed the data, in the form of maps, related to the vote percentages and the turnout at the polls in the different areas of Roma, Milano and Napoli.
Virginia Raggi’s victory in the first ballot was confirmed at the second, with the vote percentages distributed in a similar way. The Movimento 5 stelle candidate ruled in the suburbs, where the will of change strongly emerges. She deeply won in Ostia, the X municipality, that was dissolved for mafia in 2015, and in the VI municipality, where there are the working-class neighborhoods of Torre Gaia, Tor Bella Monaca and Borghesiana. Despite what happened in June 5, Virginia Raggi obtained an advantage also in the central municipalities, crushing the competitor Giachetti. The desire for something new influenced also the data on turnout at the polls: with the Raggi’s victory, there was also an increase of eleven points from the elections in which Ignazio Marino triumphed in 2013.
Luigi de Magistris did not gained a crushing victory in the first ballot, but he almost doubled his competitor Gianni Lettieri in the second ballot. Does this result testify a good administration? People who live in the “San Piatro a Patierno” area do not seem to agree. In this municipality, in fact, Lettieri confirmed the victory he obtained in 2011 with the percentage of 56,4%. In general, Napoli did not betray the former mayor, even if he lost a great amounts of votes from the previous elections.
The municipal election in Milano was surely the one fought more. Beppe Sala ruled in the center and in the 3rd municipality, loosing in the area of the central station in the second municipality. In general, the Pd candidate won keeping a good advantage also in the south of the city.
Alkemy Lab’s studies did not stop here, with the end of the municipal elections: we are already working on the Campionati europei di calcio and much more!